As we inch closer to the biggest shopping season of the year, the anticipation for Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) is palpable. It feels like the lines have already started forming. These shopping holidays, traditionally marked by massive discounts and consumer frenzy, have changed dramatically over the years, especially in the e-commerce and direct-to-consumer (DTC) space, and especially post-pandemic. With 2024 poised to be another pivotal year for online shopping, here are some predictions from Wunderkind clients and Wunderkind team members for what brands and consumers can expect during this year’s BFCM.
1. Earlier start to a shorter season
“BFCM this year is shorter, not only because of fewer weeks than last year but also because of the election. I anticipate retailers will begin their holiday activities earlier this year to make up for it, which means competition will be fierce due to ad inventory scarcity.”
– Frank Morales, Sr. Director eCommerce at Perry Ellis
We all have that one friend. The birthday girl or boy who takes their birthday, and stretches the festivities from 24 hours to a week, or even a “birthday month.” In past years, we’ve experienced this same principle to be applied to Cyber Monday. The trend of extending BFCM beyond its traditional boundaries has been growing, but we expect 2024 to be an outlier. Election season will commandeer the attention of consumers, forcing brands to launch deals earlier, and wrap up sooner. In the Wunderkind 2024 BFCM playbook, we advise that brands should have their strategies in place no later than Halloween.
2. Measurement matters most
At the end of BFCM, marketers will dive into the data like it’s a treasure hunt, sifting through point-of-sale (POS) and channel data to make heads or tails of the season’s success. This year, the insights will be pure gold — more valuable than ever due to the retail landscape shifting since 2020. The real showdown? Comparing DTC sales against wholesale numbers. With brands putting serious muscle behind both approaches, they aim to get their products into consumers’ hands, BFCM 2024 will be all about figuring out which route really delivers the goods. Retailers will be laser-focused on deciding where to allocate efforts (and budgets) — DTC or wholesale — because in this game, every move counts.
3. Up, up, and away
“We have already seen the bottom. eCommerce revenue growth has already hit its post-pandemic low. Meaning, things will just continue to grow from here.”
– Jay Sarwar, Chief Customer Officer at Wunderkind
The pandemic was less than kind to retailers, and then inflation had to dish us out a double whammy. But, even with the challenges that brands have weathered since 2020, we predict that this year will mark a revenue upswing. We have seen eCommerce and retail revenue pretty much remain flat for the last two years, and we expect that this year will be the first in successive years of BFCM growth for retail brands.
4. AI-driven personalization
“…if you’re not already usually using AI, make sure that you’re studying it…Because at some point, AI is going to become table stakes – especially when it comes to personalization.”
– Ana Warner, Vice President of Customer Loyalty and Retention Marketing
Personalization has always been a key driver of e-commerce success, and in 2024, it will be more crucial than ever. With advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), brands are beginning to scratch the surface of learning how to deliver hyper-personalized shopping experiences catered to individual preferences. During BFCM, we expect to see brands leveraging AI-driven recommendations to offer tailored discounts and product suggestions. This not only enhances the shopping experience but also increases the likelihood of conversions and higher-than-average order values.
5. Social commerce will thrive
“We’re buying more and more directly through social media, and social apps are listening to consumers and working to improve their ability to filter out the trash and knock-offs to build consumer confidence”
– Brice Allen Myers, Sr. Manager Customer Marketing at Wunderkind
Social media has transformed from a mere marketing channel into a full-fledged e-commerce platform. In 2024, social commerce is set to play a crucial role during BFCM. Platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest have integrated shopping features which allows consumers to purchase directly from posts and stories. Expect to see brands rolling out the big guns — think influencers, shoppable content, flash sales, and exclusive discounts — all to create that irresistible urgency. And, with limited-edition products hyped on social, DTC websites are going to see some serious traffic. Since social commerce is still fairly new, with social platforms still testing and launching new products regularly, brands that test the waters with smart strategies will be the ones cashing in big time.
6. Sustainability takes center stage
“I prioritize sustainable shipping options because it allows me to balance the joy of
shopping with my commitment to making choices that support a better future.”
— Molly Shuttlesworth, Group Product Marketing Manager at Wunderkind
As consumers get more eco-conscious, brands are feeling the pressure to step up their sustainability game for BFCM. In 2024, we’re betting that DTC brands will be putting their greenest foot forward, spotlighting eco-friendly products, sustainable packaging, and carbon-neutral shipping. In fact, NielseIQ states that overall, 95 percent of consumers claim they’re trying to live more sustainably, taking actions including recycling, buying products with recyclable packaging and using refillable containers. You can expect to see some clever incentives too — think discounts for choosing slower shipping or pushing digital gifts to help shoppers keep their holiday cheer without the carbon footprint. It’s all about proving that you can shop till you drop and still keep the planet in mind.
7. Buy now, pay later will dominate
The new-age layaway, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), is still going strong, and it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. In fact, the BNPL market is projected to reach $1 trillion in transaction value by 2026. Come BFCM 2024, we’re pretty sure BNPL will be the secret sauce behind many sales. Especially for younger shoppers, BNPL can make all the difference—it helps them stick to their budgets and dodge dreaded credit card bills. Brands that jump on the BNPL bandwagon can expect to see more shoppers hitting “buy” and fewer carts left abandoned in the chaos. It’s all about making it easier for customers to get what they want without the financial hangover.
8. Mobile shopping will reach new heights
“Mobile has seen a growing percentage of revenue every year. 54% of all digital purchases were made on mobile during Cyber Monday 2023 – up from 48% in 2022 – and that number is expected to grow even more in 2024.”
– Sarah Hall, Product Marketing Manager at Wunderkind
Mobile commerce has been on the rise for years, but in 2024, it’s expected to reach new heights. According to Tapcart, 81% of consumers plan to use mobile shopping apps during BFCM, compared to only 68% in the past two years. Meanwhile, shopping via desktop is on the decline with only 50% of respondents planning to use them (down 7% from 2023)With consumers increasingly relying on their smartphones for shopping, brands need to prioritize mobile optimization. During BFCM, a seamless mobile shopping experience will be crucial. Expect to see brands investing in mobile-friendly landing pages, apps, and checkout processes to capture the growing number of mobile shoppers. Prioritizing mobile shopping includes an emphasis on text. SMS marketing will play a more prominent role, with brands sending personalized offers and reminders throughout the BFCM season.
9. Customer experience will (continue to) be a differentiator
“We’re constantly trying to build more things that are beautiful and branded, but that also ease the customer experience and add more relevance.”
– Lauren Zarzour, Sr. Director of Paid & Owned Marketing at Kendra Scott
In today’s crowded marketplace, customer experience is often the deciding factor for shoppers. Brands that nail exceptional customer service shine brightest during BFCM. We’re talking fast and reliable shipping, hassle-free returns, and customer support that’s actually supportive. Those who go the extra mile to marry the shopping experience to a smooth and stress-free post-purchase experience will not only score big during the holidays but also earn some serious customer loyalty that lasts well beyond the season. It’s all about turning those once-a-year shoppers into regulars.
The shopping season is upon us
Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2024 promise to be a dynamic and competitive period for retail brands. With consumer expectations constantly shifting, brands will need to stay agile—dropping early deals, embracing sustainability, and using AI and mobile tech like never before. Those who stay ahead of the curve won’t just cash in on the BFCM frenzy; they’ll also forge lasting connections with their customers, turning holiday shoppers into loyal fans.
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